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Trading only when adx is above 25 vs the ADX breakout: which is more honest?

Two textbook strategies, one honest scoreboard — same data, same five tests.

Trading only when adx is above 25
79.9
PLAUSIBLE BUT FRAGILE

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The adx breakout
50.0
WEAK — PROBABLY OVERFIT

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The verdict

Tested on survivorship-free NIFTY & BANKNIFTY data over ~2 decades, trading only when ADX is above 25 scored higher on honesty (79.9/100). That means its backtest survives statistical scrutiny better — not that it will make you money. Most popular strategies score similarly mediocre; the honest move is to test your exact version.

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Educational, not financial advice. An honest backtest score measures whether a result survives statistical scrutiny — it does not predict future profit, and is not a buy or sell signal. · About · FAQ · All strategies