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A bull-market filter vs only buying above the 200-day average: which is more honest?

Two textbook strategies, one honest scoreboard — same data, same five tests.

A bull-market filter
82.0
SURVIVES SCRUTINY

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Only buying above the 200-day average
69.2
PLAUSIBLE BUT FRAGILE

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The verdict

Tested on survivorship-free NIFTY & BANKNIFTY data over ~2 decades, a bull-market filter scored higher on honesty (82.0/100). That means its backtest survives statistical scrutiny better — not that it will make you money. Most popular strategies score similarly mediocre; the honest move is to test your exact version.

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Educational, not financial advice. An honest backtest score measures whether a result survives statistical scrutiny — it does not predict future profit, and is not a buy or sell signal. · About · FAQ · All strategies