A computed answer — not an opinion. Here's what nearly two decades of honest data say.
More likely curve-fitting and luck than a durable pattern.
We ran buying when RSI drops below 30 through an honest backtest — nearly two decades of survivorship-free NIFTY & BANKNIFTY data, out-of-sample, with real costs. The verdict: 56.4/100 — weak — probably overfit. More likely curve-fitting and luck than a durable pattern.
Here's where it breaks:
Five statistical tests, no mercy: out-of-sample decay (is the edge curve-fit?), Monte-Carlo robustness (is it just luck?), real cost & slippage survival, survivorship-bias exposure, and sample-size adequacy. Run on NIFTY 50 and BANKNIFTY — survivorship-free by construction, the most honest data available — across roughly two decades. Rules are read at each day's close and filled the next open, so the strategy can never peek at the bar it trades on.
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Test buying when RSI drops below 30 yourself →On a true, survivorship-free test (56.4/100, weak — probably overfit), buying when RSI drops below 30 is weak and probably overfit. A backtest looking profitable is not the same as a strategy being real — most aren't. Test your own version free at The Honest Quant.
This verdict was computed on NIFTY 50 and BANKNIFTY index data (survivorship-free) over nearly two decades. It scored 56.4/100 — weak — probably overfit.
Our overfitting test checks how much of the edge survives out-of-sample. See the full breakdown — and run your own parameters — in the lab.
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Educational, not financial advice. An honest backtest score measures whether a result survives statistical scrutiny — it does not predict future profit, and is not a buy or sell signal. · About · FAQ · All strategies