A computed answer — not an opinion. Here's what nearly two decades of honest data say.
Clears all five traps that fool most backtests — necessary, but not sufficient. This does NOT promise future profit; no backtest can. Verify with paper/live before risking capital.
Across nearly two decades of survivorship-free NIFTY & BANKNIFTY data — out-of-sample, after real costs — the Bollinger Band breakout scored 83.6/100 and actually survives honest scrutiny. That's rare: most strategies people teach fall apart under this kind of test.
Here's what it gets right:
Five statistical tests, no mercy: out-of-sample decay (is the edge curve-fit?), Monte-Carlo robustness (is it just luck?), real cost & slippage survival, survivorship-bias exposure, and sample-size adequacy. Run on NIFTY 50 and BANKNIFTY — survivorship-free by construction, the most honest data available — across roughly two decades. Rules are read at each day's close and filled the next open, so the strategy can never peek at the bar it trades on.
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Test the Bollinger Band breakout yourself →On a true, survivorship-free test (83.6/100, survives scrutiny), the Bollinger Band breakout holds up. A backtest looking profitable is not the same as a strategy being real — most aren't. Test your own version free at The Honest Quant.
This verdict was computed on NIFTY 50 and BANKNIFTY index data (survivorship-free) over nearly two decades. It scored 83.6/100 — survives scrutiny.
Our overfitting test checks how much of the edge survives out-of-sample. See the full breakdown — and run your own parameters — in the lab.
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Educational, not financial advice. An honest backtest score measures whether a result survives statistical scrutiny — it does not predict future profit, and is not a buy or sell signal. · About · FAQ · All strategies